2019-20 Mosaic Genesis odds/print run tracker

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by TimBuckTwo

I had a Blaster with an auto and Genesis in it. Someone echoed that that is how they seem to be running.

That's what I thought. Pulled an auto out of a cello last week, no genesis, but that was a cello. I split 8 packs with another buyer. They got the genesis, lol. Not really, but really.

[Seven Costanza]

Originally Posted by missedthedrop

I too, would say /50 is low.
I personally know a guy who has pulled 3 LBJ MVP genesis in the past 5 weeks (not his cards, as he is a breaker but 100% trust his word).
Edit: Here's his IG https://www.instagram.com/1stofftheline/

Yeah, if you add up the raw LBJ MVP genesis sold in last few days and currently listed then that card would be up to about 45 now.

Nonetheless, to me, it's the best parallel card of 2020 across the board

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by Seven Costanza

Yeah, if you add up the raw LBJ MVP genesis sold in last few days and currently listed then that card would be up to about 45 now.

Nonetheless, to me, it's the best parallel card of 2020 across the board

Unnumbered parallels are always difficult. I have yet to see one in-hand and likely will not considering the price, unless I open more of my cellos, not. I will just settle for my green jam master mosaic LeBron and the 2 Ja and Zion I have already hit. No need to press my luck. Lol

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by thenightman

I could be mistaken, but is there some correlation between autos and genesis?

I pulled two Genesis and two Autos out of the first packs I ripped ( 5 blasters and 6 cellos at the time), I don’t recall if they ran together, but the correlation makes sense.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I'd say 50 out of the question now.

Can we use cards with known print runs to estimate the number of Genesis? If I’m reading the POP report right only 3/25 Gold Zion Rookie Scripts have been submitted to PSA or 12% of the total run.

Based on the info above 14 Lebron Genesis have been submitted and 7 Zions. At 12% that would imply a range of 60-120. I’m sure you could add BGS submissions as well as look at other players to tighten the range.

[Artiodactyla]

Originally Posted by BRob1

Can we use cards with known print runs to estimate the number of Genesis? If I’m reading the POP report right only 3/25 Gold Zion Rookie Scripts have been submitted to PSA or 12% of the total run.

Based on the info above 14 Lebron Genesis have been submitted and 7 Zions. At 12% that would imply a range of 60-120. I’m sure you could add BGS submissions as well as look at other players to tighten the range.

I am confident there are more than 100/player. Panini not numbering the Genesis cards is contributing to hype for them, as it forces people to speculate. Also, for some reason some people aren't subbing their Zion gold RS autos... not sure why. I know at least 8 have been pulled so far.

[missedthedrop]

Another thing I was just thinking of:
How accurate are the sub numbers? If the card graded lower than expected, couldnt the numbers be skewed due to crossovers or resubs?
Honestly, I think its got to be minimum 75 per player/card just due to the fact if the submission numbers are that low and the amount of wax that must be still sealed.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by Artiodactyla

Also, for some reason some people aren't subbing their Zion gold RS autos... not sure why. I know at least 8 have been pulled so far.

That’s sorta my point I guess... I would imagine there are quite a few Genesis Zion/Ja/Lebron not being subbed as well. Not everyone that rips packs submits them for grading.

BTW I agree with you, if over 30 Lebron/Zion’s each have been subbed there has to be more than 50 total between what hasn’t been pulled yet and what has been pulled but not graded (either not submitted or submitted but not yet graded). I would think 100 is the starting point and potentially higher. It’s a beautiful card though.

[drobfan8]

I think we're creeping above the /50 level for Genesis for sure.

I'm not sure it matters. These will half in price most likely but will still be chased.

I feel like /50 and /100 type cards are making a comeback with the amount of interest in the Hobby, especially with good Design.

[Ross]

My guess 100-125. There are 13 lebron base ones on eBay at this moment. No other sssssp that’s truly ssssssp shows up like that


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[doubledribble]

I sold a Lebron base 2 weeks ago. Was going to sub but happy with what I got.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by Ross

My guess 100-125. There are 13 lebron base ones on eBay at this moment. No other sssssp that’s truly ssssssp shows up like that


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I guess we could run the numbers on the Mosaic Blue /99 you should be able to find out if there's been more Blue or Genesis graded/hit ebay.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by drobfan8

I guess we could run the numbers on the Mosaic Blue /99 you should be able to find out if there's been more Blue or Genesis graded/hit ebay.

PSA has seen 7 of the blue /99 Zion, identical to the 7 Genesis they’ve seen. Another data point supporting Genesis being around /100.

[mc1]

Originally Posted by BRob1

PSA has seen 7 of the blue /99 Zion, identical to the 7 Genesis they’ve seen. Another data point supporting Genesis being around /100.

Blue /99 are hobby only right? Im guessing more retail has been busted than hobby. Just a hunch, no numbers to back it up.

[Monsters]

Got this one in a cello. I would have to agree that these are one of the nicest looking sets this year.

20200705_142148

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by mc1

Blue /99 are hobby only right? Im guessing more retail has been busted than hobby. Just a hunch, no numbers to back it up.

Yeah hobby vs retail bust rate I wouldn’t even have a guess at... there is a lot of retail sitting in people’s closets though I know that! What else numbered is in both hobby and retail?

[Sigepshow22]

Originally Posted by Monsters

Got this one in a cello. I would have to agree that these are one of the nicest looking sets this year.

20200705_142148

Nice! I pulled the same one out of a hanger.

1 blaster, 5 hangers, 8 cellos - 1 Genesis (Steph Curry MVP)

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by BRob1

PSA has seen 7 of the blue /99 Zion, identical to the 7 Genesis they’ve seen. Another data point supporting Genesis being around /100.

Originally Posted by mc1

Blue /99 are hobby only right? Im guessing more retail has been busted than hobby. Just a hunch, no numbers to back it up.

I’d also guess more retail busted than hobby, hobby is just so expensive and you’re still able to hit monsters in retail. Maybe compare white /25 with fluorescent /25? That is, if White was hobby exclusive and fluorescent was retail exclusive

[missedthedrop]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

I’d also guess more retail busted than hobby, hobby is just so expensive and you’re still able to hit monsters in retail. Maybe compare white /25 with fluorescent /25? That is, if White was hobby exclusive and fluorescent was retail exclusive

Orange fluorescent /25 should be retail / blasters exclusive.
Edit: I think white /25 is hobby exclusive as well.

https://blog.paniniamerica.net/wp-co...BlasterPIS.pdf

https://blog.paniniamerica.net/wp-co...K_HobbyPIS.pdf

[Seven Costanza]

Originally Posted by Seven Costanza

Updated Today

#8 LBJ - PSA 14 BGS 19 = 33
#298 LBJ MVP- PSA 21 BGS 16 =37

#209 Zion - PSA 7 BGS 24 = 31
#269 Zion Debut - PSA 5 BGS 13 = 18

#44 Luka - PSA 8 BGS 13 =21
#70 Steph - PSA 10 BGS 10 = 20
#75 Giannis - PSA 6 BGS 8 = 14

#211 Coby - PSA 5 BGS 12 = 17
#219 Ja - PSA 8 BGS 24 = 32

Most graded.

#8 LBJ - PSA 20 BGS 21 = 41
#298 LBJ MVP- PSA 28 BGS 26 =54 (at least 8 Raw listed/sold recently)

#209 Zion - PSA 11 BGS 28 = 39
#211 Coby - PSA 10 BGS 17 = 27
#219 Ja - PSA 12 BGS 28 = 40

[mc1]

Its been over a year since Mosaic was released.

What are at looking at for estimates? 125-150?

[Spacemanspif]

PSA graded
85x LeBron
85x Luka
82x Zion 209
87x Ja 219
64x Zion 269
62x Ja 274

BGS Graded
44x LeBron
33x Luka
51x Zion 209
42x Ja 219
30x Zion 269
24x Ja 274

So roughly 125 total graded each of the top 4. Maybe some regrades in there but the gem rates aren't bad so there shouldn't be that many. Add in for raw and ungraded and PR is definitely over 150, probably closer to 200

[mnvikingstwins]

There's a lot left unopened/raw so minimum 250

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by mc1

Its been over a year since Mosaic was released.

What are at looking at for estimates? 125-150?

Originally Posted by mnvikingstwins

There's a lot left unopened/raw so minimum 250

Last time I compared to cards with known print runs 125-150 seemed reasonable. I believe that was before the second wave of megas and hangers hit Walmart though.

Quick Zion check, blue mosaic /99 is pop 36. Genesis is 82. That would imply 225 before you account for BGS as well as cards graded more than once. You could use other numbered cards to triangulate but I’m too tired.

[regularp]

Originally Posted by mnvikingstwins

There's a lot left unopened/raw so minimum 250

Probably in the 300-400 range, maybe higher. It's an awesome looking parallel but it's not exactly rare by today's standards. Will be interesting to see how the demand for it holds up down the road.

If Mosaic only had five parallels instead of 30, I'd say it was a lock to be an iconic parallel.