Basketball cards and increase/decrease value

[Mormi08]

Hello, I have a few questions regarding how value of a card increases and decreases. Throughout my time collecting until recently, I usually just kept my collected cards or traded them.
Anyways, How do cards gain value? I obviously know that if a player because exceptionally better (curry, and others) their card values (autos and more go up in value)
What are other ways cards can go up in value?
Do cards from last year's hobby boxes and cases go for a lower price?
Do cards from a new release for the first few weeks have a high price?
Do you guys collect rookies (autos etc) who you believe can be the next nba superstar to watch his card's value go up?

How do cards decrease value?

Player gets worse?
An older release?
etc...?

Just curious to see how cards increase and decrease in price.



Also, do cards sell for less during the offseason?


thanks.

[jcardstore]

New releases, Rookies always have the highest values.

[SteveO21]

There are a ton of variables but some of the big ones are

hype surrounding a player
hype surrounding a product release
nostalgia
perceived scarcity
actual scarcity

[Mormi08]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

New releases, Rookies always have the highest values.

So, when a release is "last year's release" you'd say the prices go down as its old and people are awaiting the new release hype?

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Mormi08

So, when a release is "last year's release" you'd say the prices go down as its old and people are awaiting the new release hype?

Mostly, yes.

[DajuanWagner]

Originally Posted by Mormi08

So, when a release is "last year's release" you'd say the prices go down as its old and people are awaiting the new release hype?

Wiggins was hot last year and now his cards are dropping. This year Towns is hot and next year his cards will be dropping. Next year, let's say Ben Simmons, will be high (I'm talking about prices), and then the following year, his prices will drop. It is cyclical. There are exceptions to the rule, Lebron being one. Then, there are other exceptions where a guy comes on later in his career, for example Curry. It is not an exact science, but it is somewhat predictable that what goes up must come down. There is another exception to the rule. It is when a player has a hot streak that you know can't be maintained, and that would be Linsanity or Hassan Whiteside. Some call those "flash in the pans". They are uber hot and then uber cold. I wouldn't get into cards for return on investment. Collect what you like and like what you collect.......

[AlabamaSlamma]

Originally Posted by DajuanWagner

Collect what you like and like what you collect.......

+everything

[Mormi08]

Originally Posted by DajuanWagner

Wiggins was hot last year and now his cards are dropping. This year Towns is hot and next year his cards will be dropping. Next year, let's say Ben Simmons, will be high (I'm talking about prices), and then the following year, his prices will drop. It is cyclical. There are exceptions to the rule, Lebron being one. Then, there are other exceptions where a guy comes on later in his career, for example Curry. It is not an exact science, but it is somewhat predictable that what goes up must come down. There is another exception to the rule. It is when a player has a hot streak that you know can't be maintained, and that would be Linsanity or Hassan Whiteside. Some call those "flash in the pans". They are uber hot and then uber cold. I wouldn't get into cards for return on investment. Collect what you like and like what you collect.......

thanks for the response. Only thing is I disagree in the whiteside thing. Just started to collect him, and I truly believe he can maintain this sort of performance (being biased as a heat fan)

[SteveO21]

Originally Posted by Mormi08

thanks for the response. Only thing is I disagree in the whiteside thing. Just started to collect him, and I truly believe he can maintain this sort of performance (being biased as a heat fan)

Well you've at least got that part of the hobby/fandom down. You're well on your way.

[smalltown]

Also Market plays a big part. For example a player will often sell better if they're playing in NYC or LA.

[zebrastar]

If somebody is willing to pay more for a card, the price will go up

[Jasondr91]

Originally Posted by smalltown

Also Market plays a big part. For example a player will often sell better if they're playing in NYC or LA.

I have heard this for years, but only believe it applies to rookies.

Just think back to the last say 5 years or so. It also includes Chicago as a preferred destination. Dwight Howard, Carmelo, Pau, Hibbert....even my favorite bum, Adam Morrison. These guys move in to these destinations, and nobody in the hobby cares. Sure the locals have interest, but it's a small window. All if the guys mentioned are either once stars, superstars or even champions....here's to you Ammo...with your two rings and no minutes. Chicago, LA and NY are considered the preferred big markets, but you will only see significant price spikes for rookies that I see.

Bottom line, if you want to follow a rookie who happens to end up with these big 3 markets, expect to pay a premium. If you follow a star who ends up on one of these teams, only expect a bump in price IF the said team begins making noise in the playoffs or wins it all. Of course the guy needs minutes and impressive stats to see bumps...but then again, if a guy is impressing nightly regardless of his team, this day and age people can and will notice.

[tristan20]

Originally Posted by DajuanWagner

Wiggins was hot last year and now his cards are dropping. This year Towns is hot and next year his cards will be dropping. Next year, let's say Ben Simmons, will be high (I'm talking about prices), and then the following year, his prices will drop. It is cyclical. There are exceptions to the rule, Lebron being one. Then, there are other exceptions where a guy comes on later in his career, for example Curry. It is not an exact science, but it is somewhat predictable that what goes up must come down. There is another exception to the rule. It is when a player has a hot streak that you know can't be maintained, and that would be Linsanity or Hassan Whiteside. Some call those "flash in the pans". They are uber hot and then uber cold. I wouldn't get into cards for return on investment. Collect what you like and like what you collect.......

Great post, spot on!

There are a very very few number of players that have "Elite" status in the hobby. Stay away from guys that are quickly hyped up, or suddenly "JUMP" in price. Manipulation is very real, just need to not get caught in the wave.

[bryandwells]

Great post and all I see is about what I believe too!

[Andy5]

Another variable that affects card prices is injuries. Rose, Kyrie and Durant all saw drops in prices when they were injured.

Also the type of player. Centers don't usually sell well compared to guards and wingmen.

[Jpayne7787]

This thread is like being in school. Basketball card finance 101.

[boadster]

The truth is 99% of cards do not go up from the time they get released. Yes, a Jeremy Lin can go nuts for a month, so you'd better be ready to sell to sucker fanboys when he does. That is pure speculation. The only way to have a realistic chance at steady appreciation is to buy the best- a graded Jordan rookie for instance. You can almost never go wrong simply buying the best of the best- unless you bought a ton of the MJ baseball cards like I did back in the day....

[BBallCT]

Originally Posted by smalltown

Also Market plays a big part. For example a player will often sell better if they're playing in NYC or LA.

To expand on this, franchises with recent championships do solid

Boston, Chicago, NY, L.A, Detroit, San Antonio, and obviously GS. Unsure of Dallas

[BBallCT]

Originally Posted by Jasondr91

I have heard this for years, but only believe it applies to rookies.

Just think back to the last say 5 years or so. It also includes Chicago as a preferred destination. Dwight Howard, Carmelo, Pau, Hibbert....even my favorite bum, Adam Morrison. These guys move in to these destinations, and nobody in the hobby cares. Sure the locals have interest, but it's a small window. All if the guys mentioned are either once stars, superstars or even champions....here's to you Ammo...with your two rings and no minutes. Chicago, LA and NY are considered the preferred big markets, but you will only see significant price spikes for rookies that I see.

Bottom line, if you want to follow a rookie who happens to end up with these big 3 markets, expect to pay a premium. If you follow a star who ends up on one of these teams, only expect a bump in price IF the said team begins making noise in the playoffs or wins it all. Of course the guy needs minutes and impressive stats to see bumps...but then again, if a guy is impressing nightly regardless of his team, this day and age people can and will notice.

The phenomenon is very real, Ramon Sessions' Hot Prospect auto jumped from $2-$35 in weeks when he got traded to L.A before crashing down by season's end.

Isaiah Thomas took it's sweet time, but I finally cleaned up his cards in my inventory over the last month, clearly AS selection helped, along with winning run in Boston.

I agree however, the younger the star the better

[Mormi08]

Originally Posted by SMilligan

you can study historical pricing information on cards released with a good free tool at www.priceguide.cards

it's all charted up like stock charts, you can search for any player easily and combine different cards on a single chart - list of Curry autos page

this is awesome! thanks so much.

[Exquisite074]

It's all pretty basic, as already mentioned above - the vast majority of cards will be worth much less over time - simple supply and demand!

here's an easy way to understand it - say there are only 3 collectors in the world - you and your 2 buddies. You all like the same player, and all have $100 to spend on cards. Your player has only 3 total RC cards that year - so you each get one as they are $100 each. The next year - you all get wonderful raises and now have $103 to spend - but your player has 20 total cards released... the next year - and additional 60 cards - and one of you buddies gets married and has to sell his cards - but you and your other buddies didn't get that big of a raise - so the price on the new AND old cards will come DOWN because the SUPPLY of CARDS is growing way faster than the SUPPLY of MONEY... so your friend goes on some message boards and hypes the help out of scrubbie mcbuckets to try and find more buyers and increase demand so that he can unload his cards at a higher price...

It's pretty basic - say about 95% of all cards will be worth much less 20 years from now - so collect what you want! I mean - ask yourself - who in their right mind will want a 4th year Flawless card of - "Any Player - say - Dwight Howard"??? You have a handful of great players that will always have a following and their cards will hold and may even rise in value (aka Mr. Jordan), and a handful of iconic sets that will hold or even rise in value over the years - but they are making cards faster than you're making more money - and that doesn't bode well for card prices long term - so if you're looking to invest - it's short term with the current "hot" players and sets - and it's long term with the true greats! Other than that - collect what you like - and be happy because in 5 years you'll be able to grab more of the cards you missed out on much cheaper!!!

[fullmetal]

Demand
..nothing more or less

[BBallCT]

Originally Posted by Exquisite074

It's all pretty basic, as already mentioned above - the vast majority of cards will be worth much less over time - simple supply and demand!

here's an easy way to understand it - say there are only 3 collectors in the world - you and your 2 buddies. You all like the same player, and all have $100 to spend on cards. Your player has only 3 total RC cards that year - so you each get one as they are $100 each. The next year - you all get wonderful raises and now have $103 to spend - but your player has 20 total cards released... the next year - and additional 60 cards - and one of you buddies gets married and has to sell his cards - but you and your other buddies didn't get that big of a raise - so the price on the new AND old cards will come DOWN because the SUPPLY of CARDS is growing way faster than the SUPPLY of MONEY... so your friend goes on some message boards and hypes the help out of scrubbie mcbuckets to try and find more buyers and increase demand so that he can unload his cards at a higher price...

It's pretty basic - say about 95% of all cards will be worth much less 20 years from now - so collect what you want! I mean - ask yourself - who in their right mind will want a 4th year Flawless card of - "Any Player - say - Dwight Howard"??? You have a handful of great players that will always have a following and their cards will hold and may even rise in value (aka Mr. Jordan), and a handful of iconic sets that will hold or even rise in value over the years - but they are making cards faster than you're making more money - and that doesn't bode well for card prices long term - so if you're looking to invest - it's short term with the current "hot" players and sets - and it's long term with the true greats! Other than that - collect what you like - and be happy because in 5 years you'll be able to grab more of the cards you missed out on much cheaper!!!

Nice post. That's why I only buy, sell and collect rookie items. At the very least it helps control the supply/demand piece, there are only so many of them out there. And I find there's something special about auto's from a freshman year, likely before a player was a star.