Future value of Flawless jewel cards

[Carl]

Just a general question and want to hear people's thoughts on long term value of non auto non patch jewel cards?

I don't collect for investment specifically, and from players I collect this release is selling far cheaper than previous flawless releases across all variants.

So if I BIN my PC at $30 for a diamond card what do you think it's worth will be further on?

Some people I know don't get the point of the jewel cards, I don't own any, just interested what people think!

[Grid]

The card will fluctuate along with the player. Same as any card would. The value of the diamond is much less than the $30 you would pay for the card.

So if your angle is investing in minerals, a low grade diamond chip in a card is a bad one.

The value is in the card, not the content. That is why a Tom Brady Diamond card sells for so much more than a Matt Jones will. Even though they both contain the same size/value diamond.

For what its worth, I have seen Flawless Diamond cards selling for 10 bucks or less before. Year one of Flawless saw some decents ales of this sort of novelty card. But now the market is flooded with them, so the novelty is wearing off.

[Carl]

No not thinking of buying as an investment,
Certainly not a mineral one! Just on account of my resources, do I buy one or stay with a nice auto card, just interested in comparative future interest or value. One hand an unusual and nice card, the other might be junk by next year! Player is Demaryius Thomas

Originally Posted by Grid

The card will fluctuate along with the player. Same as any card would. The value of the diamond is much less than the $30 you would pay for the card.

So if your angle is investing in minerals, a low grade diamond chip in a card is a bad one.

The value is in the card, not the content. That is why a Tom Brady Diamond card sells for so much more than a Matt Jones will. Even though they both contain the same size/value diamond.

For what its worth, I have seen Flawless Diamond cards selling for 10 bucks or less before.

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by Grid

The card will fluctuate along with the player. Same as any card would. The value of the diamond is much less than the $30 you would pay for the card.

So if your angle is investing in minerals, a low grade diamond chip in a card is a bad one.

The value is in the card, not the content. That is why a Tom Brady Diamond card sells for so much more than a Matt Jones will. Even though they both contain the same size/value diamond.

For what its worth, I have seen Flawless Diamond cards selling for 10 bucks or less before. Year one of Flawless saw some decents ales of this sort of novelty card. But now the market is flooded with them, so the novelty is wearing off.

Great points here. Additionally with collegiate coming out I would expect it to become even more flooded. Same goes with A&G double rips cards. In the early years they were hitting $200+ even on bad names. Last years were under 100, but the odds and stuff you could get wasn't as good either.

In the end, it's all about the player!

[Bassplayah101]

Originally Posted by Carl

Just a general question and want to hear people's thoughts on long term value of non auto non patch jewel cards?

I don't collect for investment specifically, and from players I collect this release is selling far cheaper than previous flawless releases across all variants.

So if I BIN my PC at $30 for a diamond card what do you think it's worth will be further on?

Some people I know don't get the point of the jewel cards, I don't own any, just interested what people think!

Due to the amount of variations present from one stone to another, they do not get traded on stock markets. So, you wouldnt just be able to look up a "base" value from aforementioned markets.

That however doesnt mean that they arent valuable, despite the player on the card.
My guess-timate would be that the stones that Panini uses are probably garbage stones that are flawed to the point that they cannot be used in any kind of jewelry, which is to say, they are probably worth very little.

I dont have one, but if I did, I would gladly take it to a jeweler for an assessment.

I would honestly be surprised to find out that noone has ever done this with any of the "gem" laden cards. I know I would.

[trixstar]

Other than the rookie cards /20 with the "diamond" I can't imagine any of them holding much value


Other than the 1/1's of course

[majestik101]

There's a video on youtube, someone help me out and post it here where a guy takes one of these gem cards, pops the gem/stone out of it and takes it to a jeweler to test the gem to see if it's real. The results came back as expected. Fake.

So basically the gem or stone or whatever in the card is worthless, it's only the player on the card that is worth anything.

[RogerGodahell]

Flawless is a failure. The price point is too high and the resale values are low. Panini promotes it and prices it as their flagship product when it's not. It's priced 1/3 or 1/2 higher per case as NT and the resale value is 1/3 or 1/2 of NT. That's a failure imo. They're nice looking cards but grossly overpriced for unopened boxes.

[Bassplayah101]

Originally Posted by majestik101

There's a video on youtube, someone help me out and post it here where a guy takes one of these gem cards, pops the gem/stone out of it and takes it to a jeweler to test the gem to see if it's real. The results came back as expected. Fake.

So basically the gem or stone or whatever in the card is worthless, it's only the player on the card that is worth anything.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VQXRWC467o

Im shocked!
Not really..

[trixstar]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

Flawless is a failure. The price point is too high and the resale values are low. Panini promotes it and prices it as their flagship product when it's not. It's priced 1/3 or 1/2 higher per case as NT and the resale value is 1/3 or 1/2 of NT. That's a failure imo. They're nice looking cards but grossly overpriced for unopened boxes.

It's only a failure if you look at it as people buying their own boxes/cases. IMO this is a group break only buy. It's their best looking product by far but yes if you're buying your own boxes/cases it's way overpriced.

[thenwhatjk]

I collect Jimmy G and the first ever Jimmy G I picked up, as a predominantly basketball guy, was his diamond rc /20. I've since moved it because I don't see them remaining a sought after key rc

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by trixstar

It's only a failure if you look at it as people buying their own boxes/cases. IMO this is a group break only buy. It's their best looking product by far but yes if you're buying your own boxes/cases it's way overpriced.

I agree that they are very nice looking cards. And yeah for single boxes and cases is what i was referring to.

Originally Posted by thenwhatjk

I collect Jimmy G and the first ever Jimmy G I picked up, as a predominantly basketball guy, was his diamond rc /20. I've since moved it because I don't see them remaining a sought after key rc

I can see them being more valuable later on down the road. They are pretty limited, i believe every card is /25 or less. They aren't holding up well right now on the secondary market but i think maybe 10 or 15 years from now they could be sought after and regain value based on that. I have no way to know for sure but it's just a hunch. I have some flawless stuff but not a lot.

[marinocollector]

Very few people on message boards realize potential values or collectible trends.

With such a limited release, all it will take is 4-5 people fighting over these cards in 10 years with deep pockets to make this a major gain in investment. Those 4-5 people could all be 12-14 years old now and not have expendable income until their mid 20s early 30s. A perfect example is the 90s insert boom. Sports collectibles are becoming so ridiculously limited that if any one set becomes the "IT" set, than the values will sky rocket as younger generations try to relive their youth.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by majestik101

There's a video on youtube, someone help me out and post it here where a guy takes one of these gem cards, pops the gem/stone out of it and takes it to a jeweler to test the gem to see if it's real. The results came back as expected. Fake.

So basically the gem or stone or whatever in the card is worthless, it's only the player on the card that is worth anything.

Bass linked a video, here is the original thread

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/f...-not-real.html

Take it for what it is worth. I think these tested as "not diamond" since they are using a jeweler gun. It tests how hard the stone is if I'm not mistaken. So I imagine they are in fact diamonds, just low quality near industrial grade ones. And that's why they don't register as real.

Panini is pretty much just using "Borts". Bort or Boart is a term used in the diamond industry to refer to shards of non-gem-grade/quality diamonds. A step down would be a crushing bort. Those are used for drill bits and such.

They are basically just tiny industrial diamonds. How much is a bort worth? About 30 cents a karat.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by marinocollector

Very few people on message boards realize potential values or collectible trends.

With such a limited release, all it will take is 4-5 people fighting over these cards in 10 years with deep pockets to make this a major gain in investment. Those 4-5 people could all be 12-14 years old now and not have expendable income until their mid 20s early 30s. A perfect example is the 90s insert boom. Sports collectibles are becoming so ridiculously limited that if any one set becomes the "IT" set, than the values will sky rocket as younger generations try to relive their youth.

You are speaking of a perceived market, which is very hard to compare. You cant use rarity as an indication of future value.

I only have one pair of bronze baby booties, so they are rare, but only my mom wants them.

Perceived rarity is numbering a card to 20. Yet making 5 levels or scarcity. Say Gold /20, Platinum /15, Mojo /10, Emerald /5 & Black 1/1. I'm just making this up to prove a point. That same card, limited to just 20 copies, can be found in 5 different flavors each with just different foil. In reality there are over 50 copies to go around.

Using the same math model, and projecting that over the 50 sets Panini will produce on year one of a player, you now have 2,550 cards numbered 20 or less for that same player.

So in 10 years (your projected peak date) a good player, who is featured in every set, would now have 25,500 cards numbered to 20 or less. And thats per base card. They can do the same with jersey cards numbered to 20 or less, and an auto, and a patch version ETC.

The point is, nothing is rare anymore. And there are too many sets being featured for any one card and or brand to be "the" card to get.

You had a handful of people making sets in the 90's. And they made a handful of brands. If you only collected UD cards then, your options were even more limited. Now you are in an era of over saturation and an abundance of cards.

No one was grading 90's inserts at the time the cards were live. Things were not being very well kept like they would be for a card out of a $2500 box now. And there was not much of an International Market 20 years ago.

All of that has changed now. Too hard to compare different decades. And only having 4-5 people chasing a card is not enough of a driving force. If 4 of those 5 tag out and chase another card of the same player numbered to 20, that just leaves one guy holding the bag. Its just not enough to move the needle.

[RogerGodahell]

Well Blackrose really likes them

[Bassplayah101]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

Well Blackrose really likes them

Now youve done it!!

[Grid]

Originally Posted by Carl

No not thinking of buying as an investment,
Certainly not a mineral one! Just on account of my resources, do I buy one or stay with a nice auto card, just interested in comparative future interest or value. One hand an unusual and nice card, the other might be junk by next year! Player is Demaryius Thomas

I would think of all the "adders" to a card, an on card auto should hold the most future value. Should something happen to a player (death or just doesn't want to sign any more) those autos will stop being available

Panini can add a fake diamond to every card for the next 100 years. The supply in pretty much limitless. But they cant make an on card auto forever.

Just an example, I saw a George Halas Flawless diamond card. He has no jerseys to use, that I have ever seen, he couldnt sign a card any more. And even his certified autos are limited to make cuts. But diamonds, they can make millions of those cards.

[marinocollector]

Originally Posted by Grid

You are speaking of a perceived market, which is very hard to compare. You cant use rarity as an indication of future value.

I only have one pair of bronze baby booties, so they are rare, but only my mom wants them.

Perceived rarity is numbering a card to 20. Yet making 5 levels or scarcity. Say Gold /20, Platinum /15, Mojo /10, Emerald /5 & Black 1/1. I'm just making this up to prove a point. That same card, limited to just 20 copies, can be found in 5 different flavors each with just different foil. In reality there are over 50 copies to go around.

Using the same math model, and projecting that over the 50 sets Panini will produce on year one of a player, you now have 2,550 cards numbered 20 or less for that same player.

So in 10 years (your projected peak date) a good player, who is featured in every set, would now have 25,500 cards numbered to 20 or less. And thats per base card. They can do the same with jersey cards numbered to 20 or less, and an auto, and a patch version ETC.

The point is, nothing is rare anymore. And there are too many sets being featured for any one card and or brand to be "the" card to get.

You had a handful of people making sets in the 90's. And they made a handful of brands. If you only collected UD cards then, your options were even more limited. Now you are in an era of over saturation and an abundance of cards.

No one was grading 90's inserts at the time the cards were live. Things were not being very well kept like they would be for a card out of a $2500 box now. And there was not much of an International Market 20 years ago.

All of that has changed now. Too hard to compare different decades. And only having 4-5 people chasing a card is not enough of a driving force. If 4 of those 5 tag out and chase another card of the same player numbered to 20, that just leaves one guy holding the bag. Its just not enough to move the needle.

You're logic is greatly flawed. You are dismissing the fact that the existence of different versions isn't a perceived rarity, but a true rarity. We already have established collectible trends that color variations matter. All the way back to vintage baseball sets. You also have lumped several sets together with baseless information and hyperbole in your argument.
First year Flawless had 26 base cards of all versions. second year had 41ish? this year 51? even at that rate, the best players featured every year will have less than 1000 total flawless base cards in 10 years. Add in a college set for arguments sake its less than 2000. You also are ignoring staying power, that if a set stays around its more likely to see greater gains in value. An example is Contenders. The better players Contenders RCs continue to go up in value due to Contenders staying power. A Moss Contenders with a production of 300 has gone up from $200 to $1200 in the span of a few years. He has other Contender cards. He has other autographs. Why would his original set gain value? Why would second year Brady cards gain value? Youre argument is void of all rare collectible trends with items that are desirable.

[marinocollector]

Originally Posted by Grid

I would think of all the "adders" to a card, an on card auto should hold the most future value. Should something happen to a player (death or just doesn't want to sign any more) those autos will stop being available

Panini can add a fake diamond to every card for the next 100 years. The supply in pretty much limitless. But they cant make an on card auto forever.

Just an example, I saw a George Halas Flawless diamond card. He has no jerseys to use, that I have ever seen, he couldnt sign a card any more. And even his certified autos are limited to make cuts. But diamonds, they can make millions of those cards.

I think a major flaw in the anti-Flawless argument is the diamond being a draw. Its nothing but a gimmick that has been applied to numerous sets. The value in the base set is its limited production. Its high product price point. The diamond to me is a cool play on the name flawless... I think they hinder their design potential by including the diamond and making it a focal point. That being said, I enjoy getting the Flawless base cards more than some of these autograph cards /10.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by marinocollector

You're logic is greatly flawed. You are dismissing the fact that the existence of different versions isn't a perceived rarity, but a true rarity. We already have established collectible trends that color variations matter. All the way back to vintage baseball sets. You also have lumped several sets together with baseless information and hyperbole in your argument.
First year Flawless had 26 base cards of all versions. second year had 41ish? this year 51? even at that rate, the best players featured every year will have less than 1000 total flawless base cards in 10 years. Add in a college set for arguments sake its less than 2000. You also are ignoring staying power, that if a set stays around its more likely to see greater gains in value. An example is Contenders. The better players Contenders RCs continue to go up in value due to Contenders staying power. A Moss Contenders with a production of 300 has gone up from $200 to $1200 in the span of a few years. He has other Contender cards. He has other autographs. Why would his original set gain value? Why would second year Brady cards gain value? Youre argument is void of all rare collectible trends with items that are desirable.

It most definitely is perceived rarity. Yes the actual numbering is true. There are only 20 gold foil stamped copies of that card. But an Andrew Luck card numbered to 20 doesn't mean there are only 20 Andrew Luck cards numbered to 20 in the world. Just that there are only 20 copies, stamped in gold foil, of that base card, in that set. That is the perceived part. Chances are there are 100+ different Andrew Luck cards on the market numbered to 20.

Go all the way back to vintage sets, different backs on tobacco cards ETC can all sell for different money depending on rarity. But when there is only a few sets to chase, like during that era, you needed some way to make one card worth more than another.

The hobby no longer works like that with so many levels of "rare" and so many sets containing "rare" cards.

I absolutely agree with your Moss assessment. And you are just proving my point. Randy Moss only has 1 signed true rookie card. That contenders. So it is a good investment and has many people chasing his only signed rookie.

Now take Will Fuller, a receiver from the modern era. A first round pick. How many signed rookie cards does he have? And in how many sets? Answer a lot of them and in every set. And how many different parallels to each? Tons.

I agree about sets with staying power, and certain brands being more popular than others. All the more reason why we cant compare modern cards, with so many sets from the same company, to those of years past.

You cant look for a pattern since the landscape is so much different now.

Originally Posted by marinocollector

I think a major flaw in the anti-Flawless argument is the diamond being a draw. Its nothing but a gimmick that has been applied to numerous sets. The value in the base set is its limited production. Its high product price point. The diamond to me is a cool play on the name flawless... I think they hinder their design potential by including the diamond and making it a focal point. That being said, I enjoy getting the Flawless base cards more than some of these autograph cards /10.

I think we agree? I'm voting nothing more than a short term gimmick as well.

[TheFrenzy]

The best thing that could ever happen to this hobby is a bonfire. A coordinated wave of bonfires across the country as millions of overproduced base and scrubs are incinerated.

[GBfanLA]

Originally Posted by TheFrenzy

The best thing that could ever happen to this hobby is a bonfire. A coordinated wave of bonfires across the country as millions of overproduced base and scrubs are incinerated.

totally agree.

but.....
you have to remember, WE ALL contributed to the current market.

[TheFrenzy]

Just imagine a hobby where 90% of the 1990s junk wax was suddenly gone.

[RogerGodahell]

Brady's SP Authentic is pretty valuable for a non auto. The other thing about Flawless that someone mentioned is its a group break product. You wont be seeing many people buy cases of this stuff down the road at 10k a case its just not likely. So what's out there is out there on the secondary market for the most part. Is it rare? no idea..is it rarer than most products absolutely. If you combine all the parallels for one rookie in contenders how many autos would there be? 1000? more? Probably. If you combine all the parallel autos in flawless how many are there? 100? 200? Certainly not nearly as many.